La rivalidad irano-israelí en Siria: ¿un nuevo factor de desestabilización?
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2019-12
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SeIDeSoC
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Descripción
La guerra civil siria ha sido un terreno propicio para la intervención de terceros
actores, siendo escenario de la competencia tanto entre Estados regionales como
extra-regionales, entre ellos Irán, Israel y Rusia. En febrero de 2018, Israel comenzó
a atacar las posiciones iraníes en Siria y, en julio, Rusia intentó intervenir para reducir
tensiones. A partir del estudio de los hechos acaecidos desde febrero de 2018 a enero
2019, este trabajo tiene por objetivo analizar si la rivalidad irano-israelí en el
escenario sirio constituye, o puede constituir en el inmediato plazo, un factor de
desestabilización para Siria mediante un efecto de spill over. Partiendo del concepto
de rivalidad de Goertz y Diehl (2003), el presente artículo se vale de la teoría
prospectiva aplicada a las Relaciones Internacionales expuesta por Levy (2003) para
entender el accionar de los actores y de la perspectiva de la preponderancia de poder
para responder al interrogante central y esbozar los efectos de la rivalidad sobre la
estabilidad.
The Syrian civil war has been a fertile land for third parties’ interventions; it has been the theatre of competition between both regional and extra-regional States, among them, Iran, Israel and Russia. In February 2018, Israel started attacking Iranian positions in Syria, and in July, Russia tried to intervene to reduce tensions. From the study of the events that took place from February 2018 to January 2019, this article analyses whether the Irano-Israeli rivalry in the Syrian theatre constitutes, or might constitute in the immediate future, a factor of instability for Syria through a spill over effect. Taking advantage of Goertz and Diehl (2003)’s concept of rivalry, this article adopts the prospect theory applied to International Relations, as developed by Levy (2003), to understand the behaviour of the actors involved, and the preponderance of power perspective to answer the main question and determine the effects of the rivalry on the stability.
The Syrian civil war has been a fertile land for third parties’ interventions; it has been the theatre of competition between both regional and extra-regional States, among them, Iran, Israel and Russia. In February 2018, Israel started attacking Iranian positions in Syria, and in July, Russia tried to intervene to reduce tensions. From the study of the events that took place from February 2018 to January 2019, this article analyses whether the Irano-Israeli rivalry in the Syrian theatre constitutes, or might constitute in the immediate future, a factor of instability for Syria through a spill over effect. Taking advantage of Goertz and Diehl (2003)’s concept of rivalry, this article adopts the prospect theory applied to International Relations, as developed by Levy (2003), to understand the behaviour of the actors involved, and the preponderance of power perspective to answer the main question and determine the effects of the rivalry on the stability.
Palabras clave
Irán, Israel, Siria, Política Internacional, Estabilidad, International politics,, Stability